CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 13Z SUN 01/02 - 06Z MON 02/02 2004
ISSUED: 01/02 12:48Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the British Isles ... N France ... BeNeLux ... Germany ... Denmark.

SYNOPSIS

See convective forecast from January 31st 23:15 UTC.

DISCUSSION

...the British Isles ... N France ... BeNeLux ... Germany ... Denmark...
TSTMS have formed apparently along the cold front of the intense frontal wave ATTM just W of the British Isles. Increasing QG forcing for upward vertical motion should maintain a slight TSTM threat ... especially over coastal regions of the British Isles over the next few hours ... and later today/tonight over N France ... the North Sea ... BeNeLux ... N Germany and Denmark. 80+ knots 500 hPa flow is in place ... with hodographs being primarily straight-line ... suggesting that main threat will be severe wind gusts through vertical momentum transport ... which will locally augment the otherwise strong/severe gradient flow. A rotating updraft or two cannot be excluded though ... and some hail and maybe a brief tornado cannot be discounted. However ... uncertainty exists with respect to the degree of instability that will be present in the warm-sector air mass later today ... and confidence in evolution of long-lived organized convection is rather low. Current thinking is that scattered TSTMS will occur ... with an attendant severe weather threat ... but coverage will likely be too low to necessitate a SLGT ATTM.

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